Birds of a Feather…

The crisis has forced our leaders to pay heed to the national economy. A lot is being said about the crisis but no concerted and systemic response to it has been articulated. Top officials, bound to unite in the face of the crisis, remain, nonetheless, political opponents. The proximity of presidential elections exacerbates mutual distrust. All large political forces perceive coping with consequences of the global financial collapse as a tactical objective, which should not divert them from their strategic goal of winning the next presidential race.

Political decision-making centres are also suffering from a crisis – the crisis of ideas. Not a single political force has a clear vision. Implementation of any action plan is hampered: too much conditionality; too few allies.

Yushchenko, despite his wide range of powers, is most restricted with regards to means of political struggle, strange as it might seem. The president is endowed with the right to terminate the Verkhovna Rada’s mandate ahead of schedule, but he has no practical leverage to exercise it. Formally speaking, he has the support of the OUPS faction in parliament, but who will call it “pro-presidential” today? Not more than thirty MPs still champion his ideas. The “snap elections” initiative has strained relations in that team, which have never been cloudless in the first place. Regular showdowns within the OUPS faction are gradually growing into a civil war where everybody fights against everybody else. The head of the state has prosecutor under his control. Yet in fact, the Party of Regions has much more clout there: if Akhmetov and his men get tired of indulging the president’s whims, the Prosecutor General’s Office could easily transform from a subordinate body into an oppositional one.

How can a man fight with his numerous foes with such a scanty arsenal? Yushchenko’s life would have been much easier if he had not been so focused on his second term. Yet he cannot even conceive of leaving office at the end of his first term. People close to the president say that in unison. After the recent and, purportedly, high-tempered exchange between the president and his chief of staff, the latter became less zealous. The two men are still heavily dependent on each other but the earlier harmony and mutual understanding that characterized their relationship has disappeared. What should the head of state do? He can try to breathe new life into old ideas. According to our sources, the Presidential Secretariat is working to reanimate a once-abandoned project.

Yushchenko is going to… void the political reform. He wanted to do so back in 2005 but his entourage dissuaded him: the new Constitution envisioned more pretexts for the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada.

The history of attempts to repeal Law #2222 - which ushered in constitutional amendments - is long and intricate. Some time ago, the Verkhonva Rada passed a special resolution prohibiting the Constitutional Court to revise the political reforms introduced by the law. Nevertheless, in February 2008 the Constitutional Court returned to this issue. Having deliberated the petition of 102 MPs, the CC justices declined to consider the case on merit because the petition failed to meet “the requirements set by the Constitution and Law ‘On the Constitutional Court of Ukraine.’” In June 2008 the Constitutional Court ruled that the Verkhovna Rada resolution infringed on the CC’s competence and jurisdiction, and, thus, contravened the Constitution. Put differently, the Court provided sound legal rational for revisiting the political reforms. Rumours started circulating about a new petition that was allegedly being drafted in full compliance with applicable legal norms and procedures. These rumours have intensified of late.

Who will submit the petition on rescinding the political reforms to the Constitutional Court, I wonder? According to the Constitution, it should be either the president or 45 MPs. Unfortunately for Viktor Yushchenko, he cannot rely even on one tenth of the parliamentary corps. Filing a petition personally does not seem appropriate, especially given that he does not have the necessary support on the part of the CC justices. So the project implementation has to be postponed – the president and his crew have to win more justices on his side.

At this juncture, few dare to discuss legal implications of this decision. Even the most experienced legal professionals see no legitimate ways of deeming part of the Constitution unconstitutional. They will not predict what will happen with the system of power and legislative framework formed in a different political and legal environment. The entire country will be paralyzed. Yet Viktor Yushchenko prefers to neglect these trifles. What matters to him is the right to seal the fate of the Cabinet that he could obtain once the political reforms lose force.

Yushchenko will hardly succeed in this undertaking. His attempts to reverse the political reforms could reinvigorate the ad hoc alliance between BYT and the Party of Regions. Tymoshenko and Yanukovych still take Yushchenko’s schemes too seriously, which could be for the better, after all.

The common threat could bring them together in standing up to the candidate for autocracy. Yuliya Tymoshenko has an ace up her sleeve for this occasion. Every time Viktor Yushchenko tries to have the current Constitution revised, she will insist on pre-term presidential elections since the revision entails a change in the scope of presidential powers. Should Yushchenko drive the Prime Minister to the end of her tether, she will work to have the Supreme Court decision on the so-called “third round” of the 2004 election annulled; the idea being as unlawful as Yushchenko’s plan to reverse the political reform.

The plan of the Party of Regions is much simpler. They are going to stand on the sidelines, letting Tymoshenko and Yushchenko to destroy each other and lending a “helping hand” to either party as needed. They think it will facilitate and speed up their return to power. In their opinion, the economic crisis will help them attain their goal.

The Party of Regions is still in favour of the snap elections. They promote the idea of allocating funds for the election campaign from the 2009 state budget. They could even refuse to vote for the budget if Tymoshenko ignores their demands. The Party of Regions should remember, however, that they risk losing voters if they block the adoption of the budget in the midst of economic hardships.

Leaders of the Party of Regions are considering withdrawing from the Verkhovna Rada, which would make early elections unavoidable. Yet Yanukovych and his crew are saving this scenario for later. They are waiting for Tymoshenko’s popularity rating to hit rock-bottom. As for Yushchenko’s rating, the Party of Regions has long stopped paying attention to these figures.

Meanwhile the people have almost stopped paying attention to politicians. The recent “Freedom” talk show on a national TV channel that gathered all key political players in one studio (for the first time in the country’s history) failed to draw the attention of viewers.

Has the nation grown weary of politics and politicians?