Same old holiday, same new hopes

Again this man’s New Year! Again – in late December of 2007 like in January of 2005 – we see the same self-confident president, the same prime minister pledging allegiance to his self-confidence, and the same enthusiastic ministers. This definitely looks like a déjà vu, but this time many things are different. In 2005, the winter was snowy, hearts were full of triumph, and the happy future seemed so near… This year there is no snow, the feeling of triumph has long since melted away, and the bitter pangs of disillusionment have killed so many hopes.

For the seventh time, winding up another year, the Razumkov Center conducted a countrywide sociological survey. The poll involved 2,018 respondents aged over 18. The general conclusion is: the Ukrainians still love holidays and still hate authority.

Who Will Celebrate?

93 percent of respondents said they were going to celebrate New Year’s Day and Orthodox Christmas [January 7]. 12 percent said they celebrated Christmas on December 25 (interestingly, this number has not changed in the last five years).

69 percent of Ukrainians are going to celebrate the so-called “Old New Year” [on January 14, by the Julian calendar], so it looks like the country is going to be on holiday until mid-January.

At the same time, four people in a hundred are not going to celebrate New Year’s Day, even though it is a holiday to them. Two in a hundred do not consider it a holiday.

The general attitude to this holiday has not changed much. As before, 52 percent of Ukrainians call it a family holiday; 22 percent call it a national holiday; five percent say it is a holiday for children and grandchildren. As before, three percent of respondents are liable to think philosophically: New Year’s Day reminds them that “time goes by” and that “everything is transient in this world”. As before, two in a hundred take this holiday just as an ordinary day off and have no special plans for it.

There are two changes. On the eve of 2004, 18 percent of Ukrainians thought that New Year’s Day was a holiday of hope for a better future. Now, on the eve of 2007, 13 percent think so. Two in a hundred said they would watch the clock hands meet at 12 alone and feel lonely. Now only one in a hundred says so (hopefully not because half the lonely people in Ukraine have passed away).

Where to Celebrate

Most Ukrainians, as before, are going to celebrate New Year’s Day at home. Notably, the number has increased from 68 percent several years ago to 77 percent. The reasons are quite indicative: more than two-thirds (68 percent) of these say they will celebrate it at home because it is a family holiday; eight percent simply cannot afford to celebrate elsewhere; 16 percent are planning to celebrate at their friends’ or relatives’ homes.

Three in a hundred are going to spend the New Year’s night at restaurants, night clubs, or other places of mass entertainment (just a couple of years ago the number barely reached one percent). On the eve of 2007, 0.1 percent of respondents said they were planning to celebrate New Year’s Day abroad. Now the figure is 0.2 percent. Six in a thousand are going to Ukrainian ski resorts and nine in a thousand will be working.

Chime Time

Interestingly, quite a few Ukrainians uncork their champagne twice – first by Moscow time and then one hour later, by Kyiv time (26 percent in 2004, 34 percent this year). One Ukrainian in a hundred uncorks champagne only once and earlier than at midnight, and 63 percent uncork it once and after the chimes.

78 percent of Ukrainians (versus 73 percent last year) are definitely going to listen to President Yushchenko’s congratulatory address on TV; 16 percent are not; six percent are undecided. The figures were about the same on the eve of 2004.

43 percent of Ukrainians are going to listen to Russian President Putin’s congratulatory address to his nation (versus 36 percent last year – probably, they believe it will be his last presidential New Year’s address); 46 percent are not; 11 percent are undecided.

Presents

There is no holiday without presents. Ukrainians, especially children, like presents. 70 percent of respondents (versus 65 percent last year) are going to act as Santa. Nine out of a hundred have prepared New Year presents for their relative’s children and five – for their friends’, neighbours’, or colleagues’ children. This looks like a good trend, but there is another side: only 39 percent (versus 43 percent last year) are going to give presents to their parents.

Like last year, 48 percent of Ukrainians are going to give presents to their spouses; 24 percent – to friends; 18 percent – to other relatives.

For the fifth year running, three percent of Ukrainians give New Year presents to their pets. Three percent give presents to the lonely and needy. If only their presents reached that one percent of respondents who are going to celebrate alone…

All-in-all, each Ukrainian, who intends to give New Year presents, is expected to receive 2.3 presents. At the same time, people would like to spend less on such presents. Before 2002, an average Ukrainian was ready to spend nearly $900 on New Year presents. Last year the planned sum was $350, and this year it is $170. What should this tendency mean?

On the other hand, intentions to buy and actual purchases are different things. Last year Ukrainians spent an equivalent of $500 million on New Year presents – nearly $14 per capita of the adult population.

New Year’s Wishes

Ukrainians have 132 wishes for 2008 – nearly as many as for this year (136). 19 percent are uncertain about their wishes and three percent have no wish at all.

The rest have definite and quite material wishes: eight percent want to be healthy; eight percent want money; seven percent want a car, and three percent want an apartment. Some have a bolder wish – a house, but their number is insignificant – just 0.004 percent.

Digression 1: President’s Promises

“I am the President of all Ukraine. I bear the whole responsibility…I will do everything possible so that no one feels deprived. The fruits of economic growth will belong to all.”

V. Yushchenko, January 23, 1995

At his summary press conference on December 27, Yushchenko had to answer a tricky question. One journalist asked, “I am twenty and my monthly salary is UAH 1,400 [$277] for a family of three. How can I buy a flat?”

Yushchenko’s answer consisted of two parts. The first part sounded like this: “This is an issue of local self-government and personal responsibility”. He needn’t have continued but he did. “A few weeks ago we held a press conference in the Poltava region on affordable housing. We addressed legislative mechanisms of allocations for housing that would help us resolve this problem in several years.

“Yesterday the Cabinet of Ministers discussed this issue. I don’t support the government’s plan to allocate UAH 3 billion [$594 Million] for the national housing program. This money will dissipate among a score of agencies because officials know how to find shorter ways for using this money.

“The program should begin with the allocation of an additional UAH 3 billion. The government should cover one-third of costs, and a person with an average monthly income of UAH 1,600 [$317] should pay off the rest in 20 years. Local authorities should allot land plots for the construction of new houses and residential blocks. If we want to optimize these expenditures, we need to have land plots allocated free of charge. We need to offer favorable crediting terms to teachers, medics, military officers, culture workers, and scientists. So if we accumulate UAH 4.5 billion on a single account, the land mortgage institutions cover two-thirds of expenses, and local authorities allocate land plots free of charge, we will build affordable flats for 75,000 families annually. This mechanism alone could solve one-third of the housing problem. It’s irrational to dissipate funds among ministries and agencies. We have agreed to settle all land property disputes by the end of February, muster UAH 4 billion, and provide the first 75,000 families with new flats. We have one million families waiting in the line. If we manage to launch this program and enhance it in three or four years, we will be able to solve the problem of affordable housing within three or five years. We have complete agreement with all political forces, the government, and the parliament. In two months you will get a final answer to this question.”

They say the journalist who asked this question is still sitting in the conference hall – mute and stupefied…

Digression 2: New Year Presents

Unlike before, nobody wants to be given a pair of slippers. Now Ukrainians want to be given clothes, accessories, or knickknacks. Two percent of respondents (760,000) said they would like a cell phone (teenagers would like to have two).

One in a hundred wants a quiet night, a rich table, or a trip abroad.

Some want snow. Others want tableware, a tractor, a new razor, a horse collar, a book, or a pair of boots. Internationally aware people want peace on earth. The politically concerned want stability in the country, a sustainable government, and Yanukovych as President. Ordinary citizens want decent salaries, good news, and a better future.

Ukrainians still need happiness, a baby, a grandchild, and care. Two in a thousand need a dog or a cat, and one in a thousand would be happy to get any present.

Politician of the Year

The names of the most popular politicians are the same and their number remains unchanged – six men and a woman. Yulia Tymoshenko, who was named Politician of the Year in 2005, tops the list with 31 percent of the votes. Last year the top position was given to Viktor Yanukovych (26 percent). This year he is second with 15 percent. Viktor Yushchenko, who led the popularity ratings from 2000 to 2004, got seven percent of the votes (versus nine percent last year and 39 percent in 2004). Yet, Yushchenko doesn’t seem to be too disappointed, which means that he doesn’t care much about public opinion.

Yushchenko is followed by Verkhovna Rada Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk (4 percent) and Volodymyr Lytvyn (4 percent), Communist leader Petro Symonenko (3 percent), and Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko (2 percent).

12 percent of respondents believe that no one deserves to be called “Politician of the Year” and 17 percent are undecided. And only one in a thousand remembered Yushchenko’s predecessor Leonid Kuchma.

The political leaders should not delude themselves, because each has a negative balance between complete popular support and complete dislike: Tymoshenko’s balance is - 8.9 percent. Yatsenyuk has - 3.4 percent; Yushchenko has - 23.4 percent; Yanukovych has - 24.7 percent; Lytvyn has - 20.9 percent; Lutsenko has - 28.6 percent; Symonenko has - 44.9 percent.

When Tymoshenko first headed the government, 51 percent of Ukrainians believed that the country was heading in the right direction and 24 percent were of the opposite mind. Now, after her comeback, we see mirrored asymmetry: even though the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians are extremely negative about the previous government’s legacy, only 23 percent of respondents are positive about developments in the country while 53 percent are negative. Tymoshenko should take this as a very serious sign.

Political Event of the Year

Only four respondents in a thousand did not remark any significant event this year, 18 percent of respondents could not single out the most important one while 55 percent said it was the September 30 parliamentary election. 10 percent of respondents said it was Tymoshenko’s appointment to the post of Prime Minister. Four percent said it was the previous parliament’s dissolution. The election of the parliamentary speaker, the fatal coalmine accidents, and the commemoration of Holodomor victims earned one percent each.

As before, Ukrainians are unable or unwilling to name the most important world event of the year. 62 percent of respondents were undecided and six percent could not remember any significant event. Nine percent said it was the parliamentary election in Russia and four percent said it was the enlargement of the Schengen zone. The European Union’s extension and events in Iraq and Georgia received two percent each, and only one Ukrainian in a hundred called the Ukrainian parliamentary election an event of global scale. Strangely enough, some respondents mentioned the divorces of Nicolas Sarkozy and the Danish princess.

Six Ukrainians in a thousand are concerned about the economic crisis in the United States and one in a thousand – about China’s economic growth.

The recognition of the Holodomor in Ukraine as an act of genocide was named “political event of the year” by 0.2 percent of respondents.

Nice Little Presents from the Government

“The privileges and bonuses enjoyed by MPs cost taxpayers almost half a billion hryvnyas…This money would suffice to clear all wage debts or build 250 new schools… or raise pensions by 20 percent. These are striking figures.”

V. Yushchenko, August 9, 2007

Indeed, these figures are striking. The new government promises to reimburse all devalued deposits with the USSR Savings Bank, but the reimbursement rate can make anyone gasp: UAH 1.05 per ruble! 1,000 rubles equaled 14 minimal wages or 28 subsistence allowances. In return the people are supposed to get less than two minimal wages.

The same is about pensions: UAH 10 billion per 15 million pensioners means that monthly pensions will be raised by a mere UAH 56 [$11].

In 2008, the government plans to spend UAH 35 million [$6.93 Million] on combating TB and AIDS. At the same time, “medical service of people’s representatives and public servants” will cost taxpayers a total of UAH 248.1 million [$49.1 Million].

At present, there are 515,000 TB cases and 85,000 HIV/AIDS cases registered in Ukraine. UAH 35 million allocated for combating these diseases in 2008 means UAH 58 per person. And there is the well-known health and recreation center Feofania [in the picturesque suburbs of Kyiv] which caters to people’s representatives and public servants (active and former) and members of their families as well as numerous sanatoria in Crimea and other resorts. These are going to be financed in the amount of UAH 553.6 million [$109.62 Million]. Is this not an epidemic of cynical greed? How about the “personal responsibility” emphasized by the President?

By all accounts, this country is in for another hard year. Having wobbled somehow through the Year of the Pig, people are looking forward to gifts from the Rat…