Merry-go-round

President Viktor Yushchenko chaired the government session on Friday. This time the Prime Minister who refused to cede his seat to the President a year ago (and, thus, disrupted the session) thought better of it. In fact, Yanukovych mocked his emphatic public loyalty to the President: at the Cabinet meeting on Wednesday, he concluded his long speech sprinkled with phrases like “the President’s decisions should be implemented unfailingly” with Yushchenko’s election slogan “The law is a must for all!” and… laughed. Nevertheless the “orange” part of the presidential team is sure that the Party of Regions is behaving like a wolf in sheep’s clothing, exactly as they did in 2006 when signing the National Unity Pact. The “grey” part of the presidential team is positive that if the democratic coalition fails, good relations between the President and “regional” leaders will last. The latter conviction is rooted in the growing business ties among individual prominent actors of the outwardly opposing political forces, in the Donetsk leaders’ assurances they will never again quarrel with the President and in their common reluctance to see Tymoshenko in the Premier’s office. We have no way of knowing if Viktor Yanukovych meant it when in his speech at the party leaders’ meeting on Thursday he made two important statements: first, that even in the opposition, the Party of Regions would act constructively, avoid blocking the parliament sessions and make the best possible use of the opportunities open to it through chairing the key Rada committees; second, that in the event the Party of Regions formed the coalition with OUPS and Lytvyn’s Bloc and he had to step down as Prime Minister, he would be ready to do so.

Many tend to perceive Viktor Baloha’s activity in public and behind the scene as carrying out Viktor Yushchenko’s direct instructions. Yet is it true? There are only two persons capable of answering this question in a competent way. These are Tabachnyk and Medvedchuk. It would be wrong to believe that Baloha is a totally independent player. Equally wrong would be to deny he has enough human and other resources to influence the prime minister’s voting in Parliament. Those who feel more comfortable visualizing Baloha as “the slave of Aladdin’s lamp” should wait a bit and watch carefully for two things: first, whether Viktor Yushchenko will meet with the OUPS faction in parliament and set the new MPs a clear task to vote unanimously for all agreed coalition candidates for various positions; second, how many votes their speaker candidate will get – if more than 228 votes are cast for him in a secret ballot, then Tymoshenko stands a good chance of becoming prime minister. Without these two signals it will be impossible to say which of the two is true: “the President does not want the democratic coalition to be formed” or “the President prevents the “orange” coalition from being formed”.

As of today, 69 MP candidates elected on the OUPS lists pledged their support to the Coalition Agreement. All, except for Ihor Kryl, Vasyl Petiovka and Ivan Pliushch, signed their obligation: (a) to be members of the OUPS faction in the new Supreme Rada ; (b) to facilitate the forming of the democratic coalition of OUPS and BYT; and (c) to support the Coalition Agreement. In fact, it is a bureaucratic procedure aimed at speeding up the parliamentary faction’s registration. However, the stumbling process of signing the document has attracted a lot of publicity.

Ivan Pliushch is an unpredictable veteran in politics, but the other two, known and Baloha’s men¹, will eventually sign this harmless document. Yet

their pause was consequential. “Well, well, well!” – said Kolesnikov. “Aha…” – said Tymoshenko. Both withheld any further comment. Yuliya Tymoshenko is unusually quiet, which is understandable: she is afraid to thwart a slender hope for the two factions’ unanimous and consolidated voting in the Rada with a rash phrase. Moreover, Tymoshenko is fully aware that “anything you say can and will be used…” and so on. That is why she keeps silent observing the President appoint governors in consultations with Yanukovych, rather than with her; watching Yushchenko’s slack response to the OUPS chaotic signing of the coalition document; hearing the President’s farcical statement about another Pact of National Unity … Yet silent does not mean inactive. Yuliya Tymoshenko has not given up her attempts to engage Lytvyn in the democratic coalition. Their last meeting took place a week ago. Reportedly, she promised the moon to the ex-speaker’s faction members, but Volodymyr Lytvyn is procrastinating. Perhaps, Olexander Moroz’s story has taught him that the retail sale of votes could be much more profitable than the wholesale. However, if the democratic coalition idea is foiled and a different coalition emerges, Lytvyn will have little room for manoeuvres. According to some sources, the BYuT leader has not abandoned hope to reach a compromise with the Communists, the interests of whome the Party of Regions has infringed on during various occasions in the past. Yet the main contact person – Konstantin Hryhoryshyn – who defines the Communist faction’s strategy is away fishing and waiting for the situation to settle down.

Different forces use the momentary lull in the coalition process differently. Yuliya Tymoshenko is looking for additional votes and, simultaneously, trying to ring-fence some members of her future faction from outside tempters. The OUPS leaders are fighting with one another and the Presidential Secretariat. The President is de facto expanding his powers and contemplating who – the Party of Regions or Viktor Baloha – will be more instrumental in neutralizing Tymoshenko. The Party of Regions is developing action plans for all possible scenarios: from working in the parliamentary opposition to joining the coalition, with BYuT in the opposition. They are also preparing for the scenario whereby the parliamentary speaker and presidium are elected but the premier voting is hung up. In this case, the Yanukovych government will stay in office as an acting Cabinet for an indefinite period of time. On one hand, Yushchenko will have the right to dissolve the Rada if the majority fails to form a coalition within thirty days. On the other hand, according to the Constitution, Parliament elected during the snap election is untouchable for twelve months. In a year, a constitutional referendum could be held to revise a number of provisions, including this one. The referendum could be followed by another snap election.

That is it. No more news about the coalition-forming process, should anyone still care…